Wall Street Rebounds but Trump Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Offer as RBA Hike Looms
Wall Street closed higher Friday — Dow +0.9%, S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.5% — as crude oil retreated on hopes of an Iran diplomatic breakthrough and AI names led the tape. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% after hitting 5.23% intraday, with the 30-year topping 5.50% for the…
MPC Markets Morning Call — 28 September 2026 MPC Markets Morning Call — 28 September 2026: Wall Street Rebounds but Trump Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Offer as RBA Hike Looms US equities rallied Friday on easing oil prices and AI strength, but Trump’s weekend rejection of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal puts the war premium back in play as the RBA prepares to hike to 4.60% on Tuesday. ▶ YouTube 🎧 Spotify 🍎 Apple Podcasts Wall Street closed higher Friday — Dow +0.9%, S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.5% — as crude oil retreated on hopes of an Iran diplomatic breakthrough and AI names led the tape. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% after hitting 5.23% intraday, with the 30-year topping 5.50% for the first time since 2004. But the weekend brought a sharp turn: Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day Hormuz reopening plan, putting the oil war premium back on the watchlist heading into Monday’s Asia open. In Australia, the ASX 200 sits at 8,665 (its lowest close since June), SPI futures point to a flat Monday open at 8,720, and the RBA board begins deliberations today ahead of Tuesday’s near-certain 25 bp hike to 4.60%. Key Takeaways 01 Wall Street rebounded Friday (Dow +0.9%, S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.5%) on easing oil and AI leadership from Microsoft’s Copilot refresh and Akamai’s $11.6bn Anthropic deal. 02 Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal on Saturday, raising the risk that oil’s war premium re-expands into the new week without a fresh settle to re-mark the barrel. 03 The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% (high 5.23%) and the 30-year topped 5.50% for the first time since 2004, keeping the global bond rout front and centre. 04 The RBA board meets today and Tuesday, with markets pricing a ~91% chance of a 25 bp hike to 4.60% and at least two more increases toward 5%+ by year-end. 05 The ASX 200 closed Friday at 8,665 — its lowest since June and down 4.5% in September — with SPI futures indicating a flat Monday open at 8,720. 06 Key data this week: JOLTS (Tue), PCE and GDP revision (Wed), September payrolls (Fri); Micron earnings Wednesday after the bell is the next AI-infra test. S&P 500 daily heatmap — Friday 26 September 2026. Source: Finviz / MPC Markets. Global stock indices: day and 5-day performance. Source: MPC Markets. Commodities, energy & FX: daily and 5-day performance. Source: MPC Markets. 01 Wall Street Rebounds on Oil Relief and AI Leadership US equities finished Friday’s final full week of September higher after a volatile stretch dominated by yields and crude. The Dow Jones rose 478 points (+0.93%) to 51,828, ending a three-week losing streak. The S&P 500 added 0.51% to 7,743 and the Nasdaq gained 0.48% to 27,068. For the week, the S&P and Nasdaq jumped 1.2% and 2.1% respectively, with mega-cap tech providing most of the heavy lifting while breadth remained uneven — seven S&P sectors were lower on the day and declining issues still outnumbered advancers. The session was powered by AI momentum. Microsoft surged 3.66% after unveiling a rebuilt Copilot “super app” merging Home, Code and a new Autopilot agent for corporate customers. Akamai jumped after signing an $11.6 billion, seven-year cloud compute deal with Anthropic. Costco rose 2.93% on a fiscal Q4 EPS beat ($6.75 vs ~$6.54 expected), helped by roughly $0.15/share in one-time tariff refunds. On the downside, Meta fell 3.33%, Zscaler plunged over 10% on its CRO departure and cybersecurity peers sold off in sympathy. Fed & Macro Data August durable goods orders were flat (beating expectations of −0.4%), with core capex (nondefense ex-aircraft) a strong +1.6% vs +0.5% expected. University of Michigan final September sentiment fell to 48.1 (lowest in four months) with year-ahead inflation expectations jumping to 4.6% from 4.0%. Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack said the biggest inflation risk is an “inflationary mindset” and tied the rise in long-term yields to growth, fiscal supply and AI-related capital demand. CME FedWatch: October hike odds ~64–70%, with roughly one more hike priced by December. 02 Bonds: 30-Year Tops 5.5% as Yield Curve Steepens Friday paused rather than reversed the week’s bond shock. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% (Yahoo) after an intraday high of 5.23% — the highest closing area since July 2007. The 30-year yield rose to 5.505%, topping 5.50% for the first time since 2004, while the 2-year fell 6.9 bp to 4.862% as the front end tracked oil prices lower and the long end stayed sticky on growth, fiscal supply and AI-related capital demand. RBC’s Izaac Brook noted there are “no real technical levels for people to hang on to,” leaving yields to “keep drifting higher and higher.” SMBC’s Monty Gandhi said there is “too much priced in the front end,” with short-term…
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