Rio Tinto Posts Flat 2025 Earnings as Copper Surge Offsets Iron Ore Weakness
February 19, 2026 - Rio Tinto delivered a mixed but broadly solid set of full-year results for 2025, with underlying earnings coming in slightly below analyst expectations even as a standout performance in copper helped cushion the blow from a weaker iron ore market.
The mining giant reported underlying earnings of $10.87 billion for the year ended December 31, 2025 — essentially flat compared to the prior year's $10.87 billion. That figure fell about 1.5% short of the $11.03 billion consensus estimate compiled by Visible Alpha. Revenue of $57.6 billion was roughly 2% ahead of expectations, while underlying EBITDA of $25.4 billion came in 1.2% below consensus. Net profit attributable to shareholders fell more sharply, declining 14% to $9.97 billion, weighed down by higher debt costs following the $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium and one-off restructuring charges. Rio Tinto's London-listed shares fell around 3.4% on the day of the announcement, modestly underperforming peers. A Tale of Two Segments The story of Rio Tinto's 2025 was one of diverging fortunes across its business lines. Iron ore, historically the company's dominant profit engine, had a difficult year. Underlying EBITDA from the Iron Ore segment fell 11% to $15.2 billion, as the benchmark iron ore price dropped roughly 6% and Pilbara unit costs crept up by about $0.50 per tonne due to inflation and disruption from four cyclones in the first quarter. Iron ore's contribution to group EBITDA shrank from around 70% to roughly 60%. Copper, by contrast, delivered a breakout year. The segment's underlying EBITDA more than doubled to $7.4 billion, now accounting for nearly 30% of the group total. The surge was driven by an 11% increase in consolidated copper production — led by a 61% jump at the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia, whose development was declared complete in Q4 — combined with a 9% rise in the average copper LME price and significantly higher gold by-product volumes. Copper C1 net unit costs came in at just 67 cents per pound, well below the revised guidance of 80–100 cents issued at Rio's Capital Markets Day in December. Aluminium & Lithium also had a strong year, with segment EBITDA up 29% to $4.6 billion, supported by record bauxite production of 62.4 million tonnes and higher aluminium prices. The division absorbed roughly $1 billion in gross costs from US tariffs on primary aluminium exports but was largely compensated by a rise in the US Midwest premium. Dividend: Steady as She Goes Rio Tinto declared a final dividend of 254 US cents per share, bringing the full-year ordinary dividend to $6.5 billion or 402 cents per share — unchanged from 2024 and above the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 397 cents. The 60% payout ratio marks the tenth consecutive year at the top end of the company's 40–60% target range. What Analysts Said Reactions from the Street were measured. Morgan Stanley cautioned that "broadly in-line results may not be good enough for the market" following a stronger-than-expected print from rival BHP. RBC Capital Markets described the results as "in line," noting there were "no big reveals" relative to December's Capital Markets Day. Jefferies said that without a major acquisition — Rio Tinto recently walked away from merger talks with Glencore — it expects freed-up cash to be directed toward balance sheet strengthening and maintaining shareholder returns. Looking Ahead Chief Executive Simon Trott reaffirmed the company's target of 3% compound annual growth in copper-equivalent production through 2030, underpinned by the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea (which shipped its first cargo in December), lithium expansions in Argentina and Canada, and the continued ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi. Net debt rose sharply to $14.4 billion from $5.5 billion a year earlier, primarily reflecting the Arcadium acquisition and $9 billion in new bond issuances, pushing the net gearing ratio to 18%. For 2026, Rio guided total capital expenditure of up to $11 billion and an effective tax rate of approximately 30%, while flagging that Pilbara iron ore unit costs could rise to $23.50–$25.00 per tonne due to a stronger Australian dollar. The results underscore a company in transition — one increasingly less reliant on iron ore and more diversified across copper, aluminium and lithium, even if the market had hoped for a slightly cleaner beat to mark the occasion.
Read on MPC Markets Mosaic
