MPC Morning Call 4th March 2026 – Forget Iran and SaaS-pocolypse, Markets have a new anxiety… Inflation
Geopolitics, wild policy swings, Tariffs, SaaS-pocolypse, Private credit… you would think there is enough to worry about, but investors found something new to worry about, inflation. Stocks Finished down 1%, but that was a marked improvement from the open where they opened down…
WATCH ON YOUTUBE Due to increasing inaccurate AI generated financial markets news, MPC is endeavouring to verify all sources in the morning call. MPC Morning Call 4 th March 2026 – Forget Iran and SaaS-pocolypse, Markets have a new anxiety… Inflation Geopolitics, wild policy swings, Tariffs, SaaS-pocolypse, Private credit… you would think there is enough to worry about, but investors found something new to worry about, inflation. Stocks Finished down 1%, but that was a marked improvement from the open where they opened down 2.5% and Europe closed down 4% Iran situation Trump stated he would prefer a more moderate Iranian leader but noted that his top candidates were killed in the strikes, with a second group possibly dead as well, adding that “a third wave coming in pretty soon” may follow. Israel conducted fresh strikes on Tehran and a building in Qom where clerics were meeting to elect a successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while also striking Beirut and sending soldiers into southern Lebanon. Iran retaliated by firing missiles at Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman (including sites hosting US bases), with the US reporting destruction of IRGC command facilities, air defenses, missile/drone sites, military airfields, and Iran’s Natanz nuclear facilities. Casualties include 787 in Iran per the Red Crescent, six US servicemen, and about a dozen in Israel; Trump claimed Iran’s air defense, air force, navy, and leadership are effectively gone. Wild Stock movements Markets experienced volatile trading with a selloff in stocks and bonds that was later trimmed following Trump’s assurances on securing the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 fell less than 1% after an earlier 2.5% slide, while the Dow Jones lost nearly 1,300 points before recovering to a decline of around 400 points. Brent crude traded near $80 per barrel after paring earlier gains from a surge exceeding 9%, with 10-year Treasury yields rising three basis points to 4.06% and the dollar strengthening 0.6%. Inflation concerns due to Hormuz closure The Strait of Hormuz has remained all but shut, prompting concerns over global energy supply disruptions as Qatar and Iraq halted production at major energy facilities (including QatarEnergy’s LNG plant and Iraq’s Rumaila oil field) and falling debris from an intercepted drone caused a major fire at the UAE’s Fujairah oil-trading hub. Surging diesel and gasoline prices risk adding to transportation, power, and heating costs and broader inflation pressures. Trump maintained that oil and gas prices would eventually drop “lower than ever before” once the conflict ends, while China urged all parties to ensure safe passage through the critical chokepoint. Corporate news Several companies reported earnings highlights: CrowdStrike projected quarterly sales roughly in line with estimates, Target forecast better-than-expected full-year profit, and Best Buy beat estimates for holiday-shopping season profit. Apple updated its MacBook Air and Pro lines with faster processors while raising prices. In private credit markets, Blackstone is allowing investors to redeem a record 7.9% of shares from its flagship BCRED fund (equivalent to around $3.8 billion) amid growing anxiety over the $1.8 trillion asset class’s exposure to AI-disrupted software businesses and valuation concerns. Commodities, Energy & FX
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