MPC Morning Call 3rd March 2026 – Trump has officially made everything white noise as Stocks finish unchanged
The US stock market miraculously finished unchanged overnight as President Trump’s constant blitzkrieg of policy and geopolitical moves has seemingly made the market treat him like elevator music
WATCH ON YOUTUBE Due to increasing inaccurate AI generated financial markets news, MPC is endeavouring to verify all sources in the morning call. MPC Morning Call 3rd March 2026 – Trump has officially made everything white noise as Stocks finish unchanged The US stock market miraculously finished unchanged overnight as President Trump’s constant blitzkrieg of policy and geopolitical moves has seemingly made the market treat him like elevator music US/IRAN US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a near-halt in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted a major Saudi refinery, raising fears of sustained oil-supply shocks and stoking inflation concerns that weighed on bonds and shifted Fed rate-cut expectations. President Trump called on Iranian leaders to capitulate, while Tehran’s security chief ruled out negotiations and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth rejected any “endless” war. Markets are treating the escalation as a contained geopolitical risk for now, with the recovery in major equity indexes from session lows suggesting the conflict is viewed as financially manageable in the immediate term. Sector and stocks moves The S&P 500 erased an early 1.2% loss to close little changed, as energy and defense shares led a rebound while travel, airlines, cruise operators, hotels, and luxury names sold off sharply. Energy stocks extended Friday’s rally, with Exxon Mobil jumping 4.7% to an intraday record, alongside gains in Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, Equinor, Repsol, Woodside Energy, and PetroChina. Defense contractors also rallied strongly, including Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, AeroVironment (up as much as 18%), Kratos (up 9.6%), and BAE Systems (up 8.3%). In contrast, airline and travel stocks came under heavy pressure, with American Airlines down as much as 7.4%, Carnival plunging nearly 12%, Delta, United, IAG (down 13%), Qantas (down 5.4%), InterContinental Hotels (down 6.2%), and Accor (down 11%). Other notable moves included CF Industries soaring 8.3% on urea price tailwinds, Nordic American Tankers rising up to 11%, and select tech names with solid balance sheets posting gains. Energy and commodity moves Oil surged on supply-disruption fears, with WTI jumping 6.3% to settle at $71.23 and Brent rising 6.7% (intraday peak of 13%) to around $78 per barrel. European natural gas prices also soared after Qatar shut the world’s largest LNG export plant. Gold topped $5,300 amid safe-haven demand. In fixed income and currencies, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 10 basis points to 4.04%—its biggest one-day advance since April—while the dollar gained 0.7%. Traders now fully price in the first Federal Reserve rate cut for September, with bets on further easing in 2026 almost evaporating. Week ahead Focus now turns to a heavy slate of US inflation and labour data that will be watched closely against the backdrop of the oil spike and hotter manufacturing prices. Tuesday (today) features the ISM Manufacturing PMI (actual 52.4 vs 51.7 expected) and ISM Manufacturing Prices (actual 70.5 vs 60.6 forecast), alongside the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and preliminary Eurozone CPI. Wednesday brings China’s Manufacturing PMI. Thursday includes ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices. Friday covers Jobless Claims and Retail Sales (MoM for January). Saturday sees the key February employment report with Nonfarm Payrolls (est. 58k), Unemployment Rate (4.3%), and Average Hourly Earnings (MoM est. 0.3%). Any further strength in oil or confirmation of sticky prices will keep rate-cut odds under pressure heading into the weekend. Commodities, Energy & FX ASX Overnight: SPI 9137 (-0.18%) WE will see a small pullback today, with the interest rate sensitive part of the market likely negatively affected by the RBAs warning that an extended war will be an “economic hit” Corporate News Summary Capstone Copper reported record Q4 2025 results, with revenue at an all-time high and adjusted EBITDA surging to US$308 million (from US$171.9 million YoY). Copper production totalled 58,273 tonnes in Q4 at C1 cash costs of US$2.31/lb, contributing to full-year output of 224,764 tonnes (in line with guidance). 2026 guidance: 200,000–230,000 tonnes at C1 costs of US$2.45–2.75/lb; new three-year labour agreement secured at Mantoverde, ending strike risk. Treasury Wine Estates – French billionaire Olivier Goudet lifted his stake to 7.13% from 6.13%. He spent $3.6 million on additional shares over the past two trading days after steady buying in February. Goudet views the Penfolds owner as undervalued and is taking a long-term “evergreen investor” approach. Stockland finalised a 50/50 joint venture with US data centre operator EdgeConneX to develop, own and operate hyperscale data centres across Australia. The partnership combines Stockland’s land holdings and development expertise with EdgeConneX’s global experience to meet rising demand from cloud and AI…
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