MPC Morning Call 24th February 2026 – Tariff, Private Credit & Software Uncertainty drives market lower
Stocks fell overnight, as the weight of uncertainty around tariffs and software was too much for investors.
WATCH ON YOUTUBE Due to increasing inaccurate AI generated financial markets news, MPC is endeavouring to verify all sources in the morning call. MPC Morning Call 24th February 2026 – Tariff, Private Credit & Software Uncertainty drives market lower Stocks fell overnight, as the weight of uncertainty around tariffs and software was too much for investors. Tariff uncertainty and Trump Administration fallout Stocks fell overnight as uncertainty around tariffs and the Trump Administration weighed heavily on investors. The Supreme Court ruled against President Trump’s use of emergency economic powers to impose sweeping tariffs, prompting him to immediately raise a temporary universal tariff on imports to 15% from 10% via Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, allowing the levy to remain in place for up to 150 days. This move added a new layer of uncertainty, with questions over what happens once the 150-day window expires and whether policy will return to the Supreme Court later this year. The battle has now begun for 300,000 businesses seeking $134 billion in tariff refunds, after the Trump administration had promised refunds if the Court ruled against it; however, neither the administration nor the justices have detailed how the process would work, with Justice Kavanaugh noting in dissent that “refunds of billions of dollars would have significant consequences for the US Treasury.” Countries are already seeking renegotiation or clarity on existing trade deals, while Trump warned on Truth Social that any “games” with the SCOTUS decision would be met with much higher tariffs. The effective US tariff rate now stands at 13.7% according to Yale’s Budget Lab. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said it is too soon to know the impact on near-term inflation and that the Fed will “look through” temporary tariff effects. Software sector sell-off Software stocks were hit sharply following the publication of a Citrini Research report outlining a hypothetical dystopian scenario of widespread white-collar job displacement by June 2028 due to rapid AI disruption. IBM, Accenture and Cognizant shares fell heavily, with IBM down about 10%, after Anthropic launched Claude Code, an AI tool that automates key phases of COBOL modernisation, potentially shrinking projects from years to quarters. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) slid to its lowest level since November 2023, while Workday, Intuit and Atlassian were among the top decliners on the Nasdaq. Nassim Taleb warned investors to brace for escalating volatility and potential bankruptcies in the software sector as the AI-driven rally enters a more fragile phase, noting that tail-risk across sectors is structurally underpriced and that the risk is not a small correction but a large drawdown. The S&P 500 closed more than 1% lower late on Monday, reflecting the weight of these software concerns combined with tariff uncertainty. Private credit concerns Jitters continued to spread through the private-credit market as investors grew worried about lenders’ exposure to the battered US software sector and liquidity issues. Alternative asset manager Blue Owl halted redemptions at one of its funds, sending its shares down another 3% on Monday (now down almost a quarter this month). Shares in private-credit giants Apollo and KKR slumped 5% and 9% respectively. UBS analysts estimated that, in a worst-case scenario, private-credit defaults could rise 8% over the next year. Oil, copper and precious metals Crude prices seesawed and finished slightly lower, with Brent futures at $71.27 a barrel and US WTI at $66.47 a barrel. The moves followed last week’s near-6% rally driven by US-Iran tensions and an unexpected drop in US crude stockpiles; hopes of a diplomatic solution rose after the two countries were confirmed to hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva. Copper fell 0.7% to US$12,868.50 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange as US tariff uncertainty raised demand concerns, although ANZ noted the Supreme Court ruling means China now faces less punitive tariffs that could temporarily aid its metal-intensive exports (the ruling is separate from existing sectoral tariffs on copper, aluminium and steel). Gold climbed 2.3% to US$5,224.42 an ounce, supported by heightened trade-policy uncertainty, a weaker US dollar and implications for the US deficit and trade balance. Commodities, Energy & FX ASX Overnight: SPI 9004 (+0.30%) The Day Ahead: the ASX has most the overnight move priced in after yesterdays futures moves Corporate news Woodside Energy has posted a 24 per cent drop in full-year profit to $US2.72 billion as softer oil and gas prices more than offset the impact of record production. Nine Entertainment has posted a net profit of $81.4 million in its first results since the sale of its majority stake in real-estate listings platform Domain. Revenue for the half year fell 4 per cent to $1.1 billion due to softer advertising market…
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