MPC Morning Call 23rd February 2026 – Stocks finish higher despite Investors Juggling Multiple Key Risks
Stocks closed higher on Friday despite Tariff chaos, sticky inflation and AI earnings jitters keeping risk appetite in check, as investors weighed temporary soft growth against still‑hawkish central banks and a fresh Tariff uncertainty.
WATCH ON YOUTUBE MPC Morning Call 23rd February 2026 – Stocks finish higher despite Investors Juggling Multiple Key Risks Stocks closed higher on Friday despite Tariff chaos, sticky inflation and AI earnings jitters keeping risk appetite in check, as investors weighed temporary soft growth against still‑hawkish central banks and a fresh Tariff uncertainty. Q4 US GDP and early‑2026 PMIs painted a picture of growth losing momentum, with shutdown effects dragging output and business activity cooling to its weakest pace in 10 months, even as forward expectations ticked to a 13‑month high. Core PCE remained uncomfortably sticky and January data left the market leaning toward a higher‑for‑longer Fed path, pushing bond yields modestly higher and keeping the US dollar underpinned. Equities, however, looked through the softer growth and focused on the idea that the weakness was largely one‑off, helping the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow finish last week in positive territory, with the Nasdaq snapping a five‑week losing streak. Policy risk remained front and centre after the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping emergency tariffs under IEEPA, only for the administration to pivot almost immediately to a new across‑the‑board global tariff of around 15 under alternative authority. The ruling opened the door to sizeable potential refund liabilities for importers over time, initially supporting trade‑sensitive stocks, but the new tariff framework kept uncertainty elevated around margins, demand and global supply chains. Sector‑wise, AI and cybersecurity remained volatile after Anthropic’s launch of Claude Code Security rattled cloud‑native security names and forced a rethink on where AI will erode versus reinforce competitive moats in the stack. At the same time, private credit and AI‑infrastructure themes intersected in headlines around Blue Owl and CoreWeave, as worries over funding a major data‑centre project and constrained liquidity in some Blue Owl vehicles fed broader concerns about leverage and redemption risk in private credit. Geopolitical tension with Iran continued to support oil and gold, while Bitcoin stayed choppy but resilient in the high‑60,000s after an initial dip on tariff news and ongoing ETF outflows. Looking ahead, the market’s near‑term focus is firmly on an AI‑heavy earnings slate and a dense macro calendar. Nvidia’s mid‑week result, followed by updates from CoreWeave and Dell, will serve as a key stress‑test of whether record AI capex is still translating into robust GPU and server demand rather than signaling a peak in the cycle. On the data side, US PPI, a run of global inflation prints and local releases such as Australia’s monthly CPI and capex will shape how entrenched the higher‑for‑longer rates narrative becomes, while tariff fallout and sector rotation in retailers, autos, industrials and Asian exporters remain key trading themes into month‑end. Commodities, Energy & FX ASX Overnight: SPI 9003 (-0.48%) The Day Ahead: Investors are bracing for the fallout of Trumps “double down” on tariffs over the weekend and will be keenly watching the market reaction from US index futures at 9am Corporate news REH earnings – Reece has reported a 20 per cent fall in first-half net profit as subdued housing markets in Australia, New Zealand and the US continued to dampen demand across its plumbing and bathroom supplies network. The company posted net profit of $144 million for the half, down from $181 million a year earlier, as sales revenue rose 6 per cent to $4,648 million but EBITDA fell 6 per cent to $448 million.
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