MPC Morning Call 12 March 2026 — Oil Surges as Hormuz Chokes, CPI Offers Cold Comfort
Wall Street churned overnight as the Iran conflict entered its 12th day with no ceasefire in sight. US CPI data for February came in line with expectations at 2.4% year-on-year, but the backward-looking print offered little reassurance as crude oil surged past $87 on Strait of…
S&P 500 Daily Heatmap — 11 March 2026 Global Equity Indices — 1-Day and 5-Day Net Change Iran War Intensifies as Oil Defies Emergency Reserves The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran showed no signs of winding down, with the Pentagon describing Tuesday’s airstrikes as the most intense of the conflict. Oil markets remained firmly bid despite the IEA’s record 400-million-barrel emergency stockpile release—more than double the 182 million barrels deployed after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude climbed to near $92 and WTI settled around $87, up over 5% on the session, as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to commercial shipping. Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait have all curtailed output, with Saudi Aramco’s CEO warning of potentially catastrophic market impacts. President Trump reiterated the war would end soon, though Defence Secretary Hegseth said there was no timeline for Iran’s total defeat. Iran has signalled that a ceasefire requires guarantees against future US and Israeli strikes—a condition Washington has not addressed. The IEA release, while significant, was widely characterised by analysts as a temporary measure; ING noted it may signal low expectations for an imminent ceasefire. US CPI Meets Expectations, But the Real Test Lies Ahead February’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, matching consensus. Core CPI printed 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, also in line. The data offered a snapshot of the inflation landscape before the Iran conflict began in late February, and multiple market commentators stressed its limited forward relevance. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Principal Asset Management noted that the Fed has historically looked through energy-driven spikes, but with inflation sitting above target for nearly five years, tolerance may be thinner this cycle. Markets are now pricing only one rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations, with Morgan Stanley’s Michael Gapen suggesting cuts could resume as early as June—provided oil prices stabilise. Friday’s PCE print and the March CPI loom as the next critical data points, as they will begin to capture the energy shock’s feed-through into broader prices. Oracle Shines on AI Demand; Corporate Risk Surfaces Elsewhere Oracle was the standout corporate performer, surging 9.2% after delivering a quarterly beat on both revenue ($17.19 billion vs $16.92 billion expected) and earnings ($1.79 vs $1.70 expected). Cloud revenue grew 44% year-on-year to $8.91 billion, and the company raised its fiscal 2027 guidance, underscoring sustained demand for AI computing infrastructure. Barclays noted the results signal a clearer growth path for the company. Elsewhere, Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in Nebius Group for AI data centre development, while Salesforce drew lukewarm demand for its $25 billion bond offering amid concerns over its debt-funded buyback. JPMorgan tightened lending to private credit funds after marking down certain loan portfolios. A cyberattack on medical device maker Stryker disrupted its global operations, adding to the risk-off mood. Trump also moved to invoke Cold War-era Defence Production Act powers to restart offshore oil production at Sable Offshore in California, though analysts noted the 45,000–55,000 barrel-per-day output would be modest against the Hormuz shortfall. Commodities, Energy & FX Commodities, Energy & FX — 1-Day and 5-Day Net Change ASX200 Futures 8,683 — down 47 pts (–0.5%) ASX Today Australian shares are poised to open lower, with ASX 200 futures down 47 points to 8,683 near 7.25am Consumer staples and defensive names held up best along with the energy sector Corporate News Liontown Resources reported a net loss of $184 million for the half year to December despite more than doubling revenue to $207.5 million as its Kathleen Valley lithium operation ramped up. Production climbed 70% to 192,514 tonnes at 5.0% lithium oxide, with underground mining now at a run rate of one million tonnes per year and targeting 1.5 million by end of March 2026. The loss was driven largely by a $104.4 million non-cash charge linked to an LG Energy Solution convertible note converted to equity in February. Liontown finished the period with $390.5 million in cash and flagged stronger cash generation ahead as production, recoveries and lithium prices improve. Watch the Video
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