MPC Morning Call 10th March 2026 – Stock rebound as oil plummets on Trumps declaration of “quick win” in Iran
US equities began Monday's session under heavy selling pressure as Brent crude briefly touched US$119.50 a barrel — up nearly 80% since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began — stoking fresh fears of a stagflationary shock. The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.5% intraday before Trump's…
WATCH ON YOUTUBE MPC Morning Call 10 th March 2026 – Stock rebound as oil plummets on Trumps declaration of “quick win” in Iran Equities: A Rollercoaster Session Ends in the Green Equities US equities began Monday's session under heavy selling pressure as Brent crude briefly touched US$119.50 a barrel — up nearly 80% since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began — stoking fresh fears of a stagflationary shock. The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.5% intraday before Trump's CBS interview reversed the tone entirely. In that interview, Trump declared the war was "very complete, pretty much" and that the military campaign was "very far" ahead of its initial four-to-five-week timeline. The index closed up 0.8%, though it remains approximately 2.6% below its late-January peak. The whipsaw underscored how profoundly markets remain hostage to a single headline in the current environment. Strategists are growing more cautious. Ed Yardeni raised his probability of a market meltdown for the remainder of the year to 35% (from 20%), while simultaneously slashing the probability of a melt-up to just 5% (from 20%). JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler turned "tactically bearish," warning of a potential 10% drawdown from peak levels as a result of the conflict. On the corporate front, Hewlett Packard Enterprise reported quarterly revenue guidance that beat analyst estimates on the back of solid AI hardware demand. Apple disclosed further delays to its long-planned smart home display, a casualty of the company's ongoing AI struggles. Anthropic filed suit against the US Defense Department after it was designated a supply chain risk. And Novo Nordisk announced a surprise commercial partnership with Hims & Hers Health, reversing eight months of legal conflict. Oil & Commodities: From Demand Destruction Territory Back Below $90 Commodities Energy markets were at the epicentre of overnight volatility. WTI crude initially rocketed past US$119 — a level up nearly 80% since the Iran conflict began — before Trump's comments sent it crashing back below US$86, a swing of more than US$33 a barrel in a single session. G-7 finance ministers issued a statement saying they stood ready to release strategic oil reserves if needed, though they had not yet reached that threshold. EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis went further, stating such a release would be "warranted," with G-7 energy ministers scheduled to revisit the matter on Tuesday. Complicating the medium-term supply picture, the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia had preemptively shut several offshore oilfields — including Safaniya and Zuluf — potentially reducing output by more than 2 million barrels per day, though export levels had not yet been affected. Meanwhile, Iran's selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader signals policy continuity in Tehran, with little near-term shift in the country's approach to the war. The IMF warned a sustained 10% rise in energy costs would add approximately 0.4 percentage points to global inflation and shave up to 0.2 percentage points off growth. Bloomberg Intelligence has identified US$133 per barrel as the point at which demand destruction typically sets in. Bonds & FX: Yields Retreat, Dollar Slips on De-escalation Hopes Fixed Income & FX The US$31 trillion Treasury market whipsawed alongside equities. Ten-year yields spiked to 4.21% — their highest level in five sessions — before retreating to approximately 4.09% after Trump's remarks eased near-term inflation fears. The Bloomberg Dollar Index dipped 0.2% after trading up as much as 0.7% in the early part of the session. European bond markets also saw significant turbulence. UK two-year yields rose as much as 30 basis points intraday before paring gains to close 11 basis points higher at 3.98%, while German two-year yields surged nine basis points before retreating to 2.31%. Rate expectations shifted sharply over the course of the session. Swaps that had earlier implied a 60% probability of two ECB rate hikes this year ended the day pricing closer to 35%. In the US, Fed funds futures continue to price the first cut no earlier than September — a meaningful delay from the pre-war expectation of a July move. Some traders are now pricing no Fed cuts at all in 2026. One-year US CPI swaps briefly exceeded 3% for the first time since October before pulling back to 2.76%. Private Credit: Gates Are Opening — and That's the Problem Credit Markets Away from the geopolitical drama, a structural fault line widened in the US$1.8 trillion private credit market. BlackRock capped redemptions from its US$26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund at 5% after investors sought to withdraw nearly double that amount — the first major instance of a private credit manager limiting withdrawals on a perpetual vehicle since market anxiety escalated. Blackstone, by contrast, permitted a record 7.9% redemption from its US$82 billion BCRED fund, partly funded by approximately US$150 million of…
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