MPC Monthly Markets Wrap: June 2026
June was a month of contradictions — semiconductors surged 106% YTD on relentless AI capex, SpaceX's record IPO whipsawed retail investors, and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh killed forward guidance cold. The Iran peace deal holds for now, but July's nuclear talks could reset…
June 2026: Peace, Space and Semiconductors — MPC Monthly Markets @import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@400;500;600;700;800&display=swap'); * { margin: 0; padding: 0; box-sizing: border-box; } body { font-family: 'Inter', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, sans-serif; background: #f3f2ef; color: #191919; line-height: 1.6; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; }.container { max-width: 680px; margin: 0 auto; background: #ffffff; box-shadow: 0 0 0 1px rgba(0,0,0,0.08), 0 2px 8px rgba(0,0,0,0.04); } /* Top bar */.top-bar { display: flex; align-items: center; padding: 12px 24px; border-bottom: 1px solid #e8e8e8; gap: 10px; }.top-bar.logo { font-weight: 800; font-size: 14px; color: #0a66c2; letter-spacing: -0.5px; }.top-bar.logo span { color: #191919; }.top-bar.pub-name { font-size: 12px; color: #666; font-weight: 500; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.5px; } /* Hero banner */.hero { width: 100%; position: relative; }.hero img { width: 100%; display: block; } /* Article content */.content { padding: 32px 24px; }.article-title { font-size: 24px; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1.3; color: #191919; margin-bottom: 20px; }.author-row { display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 12px; margin-bottom: 24px; padding-bottom: 20px; border-bottom: 1px solid #e8e8e8; }.author-avatar { width: 48px; height: 48px; border-radius: 50%; object-fit: cover; }.author-info { display: flex; flex-direction: column; }.author-name { font-weight: 600; font-size: 15px; color: #191919; }.author-name a { color: #0a66c2; text-decoration: none; }.author-date { font-size: 13px; color: #666; } p { font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.7; color: #333; margin-bottom: 16px; } h2 { font-size: 22px; font-weight: 700; color: #191919; margin-top: 36px; margin-bottom: 16px; line-height: 1.3; } h3 { font-size: 18px; font-weight: 700; color: #191919; margin-top: 28px; margin-bottom: 12px; line-height: 1.3; }.section-label { display: inline-block; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 700; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0a66c2; background: #e8f0fe; padding: 4px 10px; border-radius: 3px; margin-bottom: 8px; }.full-width-img { width: 100%; margin: 24px 0; display: block; }.img-caption { font-size: 13px; color: #666; font-style: italic; text-align: center; margin-top: -16px; margin-bottom: 24px; }.key-moments p { margin-bottom: 12px; }.key-moments strong { color: #191919; } a { color: #0a66c2; text-decoration: none; } a:hover { text-decoration: underline; }.factbox-link { display: inline-block; margin: 16px 0 24px; font-weight: 600; font-size: 15px; color: #0a66c2; }.divider { border: none; border-top: 1px solid #e8e8e8; margin: 32px 0; }.footer-img { width: 100%; display: block; } /* LinkedIn company link styling */.co-link { color: #0a66c2; font-weight: 500; } MPC MARKETS MPC MONTHLY MARKETS June 2026: Peace, Space and Semiconductors Mark Gardner June 24, 2026 June was one of those months where you had to hold two completely contradictory thoughts in your head at the same time and not flinch. Markets are up. Risk is rising. Both are true. The semiconductor index has now done 180% in twelve months, which is either the most rational outcome in the world given what's happening with AI capex, or a sign we're getting into priced-for-perfection territory. Probably a bit of both. We've been active in US memory names through the rally, but we've also been trimming. There's a point where the thesis is still intact but the position sizing gets uncomfortable, and a few names are there. Then there's the Fed. Jerome Powell spent four years basically telling markets what he was going to do two weeks before he did it. Kevin Warsh's first act as chair was to stop entirely. No forward guidance. Shorter statement than anyone expected. And a cluster of FOMC members flagging possible hikes before year-end, the first time that's happened since the hiking cycle ended. Rates jumped, the dollar strengthened. Anything rate-sensitive got sold. We don't think that dynamic resolves quickly. SpaceX went public. Largest IPO in history. Priced at $135, ran to $200 in days, then gave back 23% in a week. Six hundred billion in market cap, gone. Retail was still net buying on the way down, which tells you something. The float structure alone is worth understanding before anyone touches this — a firehose of new supply hitting the market across a series of lockup expirations out to 180 days. And sitting under all of it, quietly, the US-Iran deal. If that falls apart.... who knows what July will bring KEY THEMES What drove the month Month in Review The Key Moments 27–29 May: Iran peace deal rumours drive S&P to new records. Multiple false starts. Axios reported an MOU was reached May 29 but it still needed Trump's sign-off. S&P closed at 7,563. Core PCE running at 3.5%. 1–5 Jun: Nine-week streak. S&P breaks 7,600 for the first time ever. Nvidia unveiled new AI products. Google's capital raise triggered hyperscaler…
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