MPC Markets - Morning Report | Thursday, 5 March 2026
After a bruising week, Wall Street found its footing — and the ASX looks set to follow
Markets US equities bounced firmly on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak for the Dow. The S&P 500 added 0.78%, the Nasdaq surged 1.29%, and the Dow gained 0.49%, a meaningful recovery after Tuesday's session saw the index shed more than 400 points on Iran war fears. Semiconductors and mega-cap tech led the charge. Micron and AMD each jumped over 5%, while Tesla and Amazon both rose more than 3%. Bank of America initiated Tesla at Buy with a $460 price target, citing robotaxi growth as the key catalyst. Broadcom and Nvidia also added gains as the chip sector refocused on fundamentals. Software stocks continued their rebound, a welcome development after a bruising stretch. Risk appetite was further supported by a stronger-than-expected ADP private payrolls print for February and an ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI showing cooling price pressures alongside resilient activity. Bitcoin gained approximately 7%, back above $71,000, supported in part by political tailwinds around stablecoin legislation. Not out of the weeds yet, but it's a positive sign. Software Survivors — Structured Product Update The basket performed well overnight. Key moves from the US session: CRWD +4.0% | PANW +1.5% | VEEV +11% (after hours) PME, WTC, and PNE are expected to follow overnight US momentum when the ASX opens today. VEEV traded relatively flat during regular hours before reporting earnings after the close, beating on both top and bottom line, up 11% in after-hours trade. Cybersecurity outperformance continues. CRWD's 4% gain reflects accelerating enterprise security spend driven by geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, directly reinforcing the Software Survivors thesis. Geopolitics The US–Israel military campaign against Iran entered its fifth day with no clear path to de-escalation. Six American service members have been killed since Saturday, and Iran's retaliatory strikes on Gulf states continue to test regional air defence systems. The Strait of Hormuz remains the key economic flashpoint. Container shipping giants have suspended operations through the chokepoint, rerouting vessels around southern Africa. Trump has pledged the US Navy will escort tankers, but scepticism is running high after a container ship was struck this week. Oil has pulled back from early-week highs; futures markets suggest the current price spike is viewed as temporary rather than a structural supply break. Congressional pressure is building. The US Senate voted on a resolution requiring Trump to seek congressional approval to continue the military campaign, the House votes Thursday. Any signal of escalation limits or a diplomatic off-ramp could be a meaningful catalyst for risk assets. Private Credit — Stress Watch Redemptions are becoming a systemic theme. Blue Owl's OBDC II has suspended withdrawals entirely and is heading for full liquidation after a failed merger attempt and mounting investor exits. Blackstone's $82 billion BCRED recorded its first-ever quarterly net outflow, with redemption requests hitting 7.9% of NAV, Blackstone covered the gap by injecting $400 million of its own capital. JPMorgan called it "a significant expression of souring investor sentiment on direct lending." The underlying driver is familiar: AI disruption of software-heavy loan books, a theme central to our investment thesis. ASX Outlook The ASX is set up for a constructive open. Wall Street's Wednesday rebound — led by tech and chips — provides solid overnight tailwind, and local investors will be watching VEEV's 11% after-hours earnings beat closely as a sentiment read for the software sector. PME, WTC, and PNE are all well-positioned to catch a bid today. Broader risk appetite is recovering as oil stabilises and the market begins to price the Iran conflict as a manageable — if volatile — backdrop rather than a systemic shock. After a choppy start to the week, today feels like a day where the bulls have the momentum.
Read on MPC Markets Mosaic
