MPC Markets Morning Call — 2nd April 2026: Stocks Rally as Investors Choose Hope Despite Troop Deployment
US equities extended their two-day recovery with the S&P 500 adding 0.7% to 6,573.89 as Trump claimed Iran had requested a ceasefire — a claim Tehran immediately rejected as “false and baseless.” WTI crude briefly broke below $100 for the first time since the war began, and…
US equities extended their two-day recovery with the S&P 500 adding 0.7% to 6,573.89 as Trump claimed Iran had requested a ceasefire — a claim Tehran immediately rejected as “false and baseless.” WTI crude briefly broke below $100 for the first time since the war began, and Brent slipped to $101. Gold surged 2.1% to $4,765 as the de-escalation narrative held, while data showed US retail sales and manufacturing beat expectations in February. All eyes now turn to Trump’s prime-time address to the nation (midday Thursday AEDT), where he is expected to declare military success and signal a 2–3 week exit from the conflict. The ASX is pointed to a modest open of 8,728 (+0.2%), though analysts warn the late-week selloff pattern that has dogged markets since the war began still looms. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 6,573.89 on Wednesday, extending Tuesday’s 2.9% surge in a second day of de-escalation trading. The catalyst this time was Trump claiming on Truth Social that “Iran’s New Regime President… has just asked for a CEASEFIRE!” — conditional on Hormuz reopening — an assertion Iran’s foreign ministry immediately branded as “false and baseless.” Nonetheless, markets ran with the headline: eight of eleven S&P 500 sectors rose, MSCI World logged its biggest two-day gain since April 2025, and WTI crude briefly traded below $100 for the first time since the war began, before settling at $99.59. Brent slipped to ~$101. Gold advanced a fourth consecutive day, rising 2.1% to $4,765. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan traders attributed much of Tuesday’s surge to negative positioning unwind rather than genuine sentiment shift. Analysts are flagging the now-established late-week selloff pattern — the S&P 500 has lost 9% cumulatively on Thursdays and Fridays alone since the war started. The Iran war’s Hormuz “tollbooth” is now fully operational: the IRGC is charging $1/barrel in yuan or crypto for escorted passage, with a country ranking system determining terms. ASX 200 futures point to +19 points (+0.2%) to 8,728 ahead of Trump’s televised address at midday AEDT. Key Takeaways 01 The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 6,573.89, Nasdaq 100 added 1.2% to 21,840.95, and the Dow gained 0.5% to 46,565.86 — a second consecutive positive session, giving the MSCI World its biggest two-day gain since April 2025. However, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan traders warned Tuesday’s rally was driven more by positioning unwind than genuine sentiment change. 02 Trump claimed on Truth Social that Iran had “asked for a CEASEFIRE,” conditioned on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s foreign ministry flatly denied it as “false and baseless.” Trump is set to deliver a prime-time TV address Wednesday night (midday Thursday AEDT), expected to claim military success and push a 2–3 week exit timeline, while also threatening to withdraw the US from NATO. 03 WTI crude briefly broke below $100/barrel for the first time since the war started, settling at $99.59 (–1.8%); Brent fell 2.8% to ~$101. Iran’s IRGC is running a formal Hormuz “tollbooth” — charging ~$1/barrel in yuan or cryptocurrency for escorted passage, with preferential rates for “friendly” nations including Pakistan. 04 Gold rose 2.1% to $4,765.03 for a fourth straight session of gains. The US Dollar Index fell 0.2%, posting its biggest two-day decline since early February, with GBP the top G10 gainer. 10-year Treasury yields edged up 1bp to 4.33%; rates futures are drifting back toward pricing in a Fed cut this year rather than a hike. 05 US retail sales beat in February (+0.6% M/M vs. +0.4% consensus) and ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 52.7 in March (expansion for the 17th consecutive month), though the ISM prices-paid sub-index surged 7.8 points to 78.3 on rising energy and materials costs. SpaceX filed confidentially for an IPO targeting a June listing at a potential $1.75 trillion valuation; OpenAI completed an $852 billion raise. 06 ASX 200 futures are pointing to 8,728, up 19 points (+0.2%). All attention is on Trump’s TV address at midday AEDT. PM Albanese delivered a rare national address urging Australians to conserve fuel; he speaks at the National Press Club at 12:30pm AEDT to flag increased government support for critical industries including domestic refining. The Trump administration is preparing a 25% tariff on finished steel and aluminium goods (WSJ), to be announced this week. S&P 500 Daily Stock Heatmap for 1 April 2026 S&P 500 Daily Heatmap — 1 April 2026. Eight of eleven sectors rose. Industrials, materials, tech and comms gained 1%+. Energy was the standout laggard (–4%, biggest fall in a year) as Brent dipped toward $100. 01 Equities US stocks extended gains for a second consecutive session on Wednesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 6,573.89, the Nasdaq 100 added 1.2%, and the Dow gained 0.5% to 46,565.86. The MSCI World Index rose 1.4%, giving global equities their biggest two-day advance since April 2025. Travel, mining, and technology stocks led the charge, with…
Read on MPC Markets Mosaic
