Before & After: 1 Month comparison of Traffic through the Straight of Hormuz
What the tanker traffic collapse means for energy markets — and what to watch next
See our Animated Comparison Map The Situation in 60 Seconds The Strait of Hormuz — the 33km-wide chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman — has functionally closed. Following a military escalation beginning around 28 February 2026, tanker traffic through the strait collapsed by an estimated 90–95%. AIS tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic shows lanes that were carrying 40+ vessels per day now operating at near-zero throughput. IRINS Makran, Iran's largest naval vessel and forward base ship (a converted tanker), was struck and is confirmed burning via Planet Labs satellite imagery. Multiple supporting warships at Bandar Abbas sustained damage. The Iranian fleet's ability to threaten commercial shipping has been materially degraded — but the uncertainty itself has been enough to effectively freeze the market. Why This Chokepoint Is Different The Strait of Hormuz is not just important — it is irreplaceable. Unlike the Suez Canal or Malacca Strait, there is no viable alternate route for Gulf oil exporters. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (Petroline) can divert ~5Mb/d, but total Gulf exports average ~18–21Mb/d. There is no rerouting option that covers the gap. Market Implications Oil & Energy Brent crude war premium has spiked. The historical reference point is the Iran–Iraq Tanker War (1984–88), where war risk insurance alone added $0.50–$2.00/barrel. Current conditions are more acute. War risk insurance for strait transits has been suspended by most P&I clubs. No transit = no cargo = supply shock that builds daily. Saudi Aramco's Petroline diversion capacity (~5Mb/d) partially offsets but leaves a structural shortfall. Iraq, Kuwait, and UAE have no alternative export routes. LNG exports from Qatar — which supplies ~20% of global LNG — are also exposed. Qatar's LNG terminals are on the Gulf coast. Equities & Sectors Energy producers with non-Gulf exposure (WTI-linked, North Sea, West African barrels) benefit from price uplift without supply risk. Shipping: Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) not currently in the Gulf are seeing spot rate spikes as rerouting demand surges. Names with Gulf exposure are grounded. Refiners face margin compression as feedstock costs surge ahead of product price pass-through. Defence & aerospace: secondary beneficiary as rearmament narrative accelerates. Consumer discretionary and airlines: direct cost headwinds from fuel price increases. ASX-Specific Watch List Woodside (WDS): LNG pricing leverage, but Pluto/North West Shelf production routes don't transit Hormuz. Net beneficiary of higher LNG spot prices. Beach Energy (BPT) / Santos (STO): domestic supply, insulated from direct disruption, benefit from energy price uplift. Mineral Resources / Pilbara Minerals: indirect exposure via shipping cost inflation on iron ore freight. Qantas (QAN) / Alliance Aviation: jet fuel price risk materialises quickly in a sustained disruption scenario. What to Watch — The Five Signals 1. AIS data resumption: The single most actionable indicator. Watch MarineTraffic and Kpler for tanker movement restarting in the strait. Even 10–15 vessels/day resuming transit signals insurance market reopening. 2. IEA SPR coordination: A coordinated strategic petroleum reserve release (last seen in 2022 post-Ukraine) would cap the price spike. Watch for member state communiqués. 3. Saudi Petroline utilisation: Aramco can pipe ~5Mb/d to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Watch for tanker buildups at Yanbu — a visible proxy for diversion volume and Riyadh's posture. 4. US 5th Fleet posture: Carrier strike group positioning in the Gulf of Oman is the clearest signal of US escalation or de-escalation intent. Open-source vessel tracking via NavalNews / USNI. 5. Iran nuclear posture: Any signals from IAEA inspectors being expelled or enrichment acceleration would materially reprice the tail risk scenario. MPC View Our base case is Scenario 2: Protracted Standoff (45% probability). Energy exposure via non-Gulf producers and LNG infrastructure remains our preferred expression. We are monitoring the five signals above for a shift into either resolution or escalation. Structured products with energy commodity underliers remain on watch for barrier review given sustained price volatility. Clients with oil-linked positions should review downside protection levels. This situation is moving in real time. Mosaic subscribers will receive signal updates as the five indicators shift. SOURCES & METHODOLOGY AIS tanker tracking: Kpler, MarineTraffic · Satellite imagery: Planet Labs (via The War Zone, Reuters) · Naval positioning: USNI News, NavalNews · Historical price data: EIA, IEA · Scenario probability estimates: MPC Markets internal analysis. This document is general research information only and does not constitute financial product advice.
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